Aleph Zero Review and Rating (SVET-V)

Komposition V, Wassily Kandinsky (1911)

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I continue to review Aleph Zero as well as to rank it on the ‘Vision’ sub-scale.

There’s this idiosyncratic theses, popularized among Bitcoin early adapters, stating that in our days all value accumulates at the base layer protocols as opposed to early years of Internet, when only those building apps upon it became ungainly rich — not the creators of TSPIP, FTP or DNS.

In this regard, Aleph Zero’s underlying protocol supporting file storage, DEX, Oracles and, of course, smart contracts allows it to capture consumers and investors’ bucks at maximum, at least in theory. Would it happen in reality — difficult to say at this moment, of course.

On the one hand, as DeFi grows insanely ETH continues to be our sole reserve currency in this domain, which creates a monopoly. Many of us do not like monopolies — even the most benevolent ones — as they make our small crypto-kingdom too vulnerable for state aggressors.

On the other hand, the number of lurking ‘Ethereum killers’ increases as well, which gives us hope. At the same time, it rises even higher the barrier for entry into this lucrative market for all newcomers.

How Aleph Zero would be able to navigate this narrowing and increasingly populated strait in its new, small boat is not clear at the moment. However, the yarning to see a big blue ocean ahead crisscrossed by millions of yachts full of new protocols’ hungry users is just too strong to resist.

Btw, how really big is this ocean? With Ethereum market cap fluctuating around $20 billions and another $10 billion or so added by its nearest competitors might it still be 10x, 100x or even 1000x in the foreseeable future (allowing, at the same time, plenty of room for new riders)?

Let’s be moderately hopeful and envision, say, $300 billion cumulative market cap for smart contracts platforms in 3–5 years with Aleph Zero’s taking 1% of it ($3 bln).

If you ask me why 1% and not, for example, 0.1%, I might say that there are currently about 900 independent blockchain platforms and to be in the first 100 in the world is not unimaginable at all for the Aleph Zero team (btw, even 0.1% gives them $300 mio cap, which is not a peanut and I did not even mention their other two declared big markets — DEXs and storages).

Now to the rating.

Taking into consideration all of the above-said, it feels fair to me that the ‘Volume’ (potential market size) goes to ‘a’. However, ‘Singularity’ (absence of competition) is, imho, already below ‘b’ and has to be set at ‘c+’. At the same time, ‘Empathy’ (consumers perception / preference) might be only as high as ‘b’ with a tendency to ‘c’ (most users are confused and even frustrated by the multiplicity of choices they already have). Let’s make it ‘b-’ then.

What is left is ‘Timing’ (how late / early entrant to the market is the project?). Year 2020 would put ‘a’ out of context but the strong ‘b’ is a possibility as the tide only starts rising for DeFi.

[DISCLAIMER: My rating is analytical — not investment one. It must be considered as a company’s review statement and is not intended to be an investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for that.]

Result for ‘Vision’ (Singularity — Volume — Empathy — Timing): c+/a/b-/b

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