Today, our small “parade of incompetence”, which is headed by Big 4 is joined by another consulting “dinosauria” — “global research and advisory firm” Gartner Inc. (40-years-old, $5 billion in revenues).
They’ve just published their patented “hype cycle” graph, this time filled in with “Blockchain technologies”. It presents itself something like an elliptic curve rotated 90 degree counterclockwise in the two-dimensional axis plain (vertical: “Expectations”, horizontal: “Time” ) and divided to 5 “phases”: “Trigger”, “Peak”, “Disillusionment”, “Enlightenment” and “Productivity”.
Supposedly, as you associate a given technology with one of those phases, you can predict how soon it reaches “the maturity” (“Productivity”).
This particular curve contains about fifty (50) “blockchain technologies” which present themselves structural and terminological mess and include among other such things as “Blockchain for Lead Generation”, “Blockchain Data Exchanges”and “Blockchain Society” (whatever all of that supposed to mean).
According to this graph “Smart Contracts” are in the “Pick” phase and have (for some unspecified reason) “2–5 years to maturity”, while placed on the curve right after it “Blockchain in Insurance” has 5–10 years. Obviously, Gartner’s “analysts” believe that insurance people will be waiting until Gartner allows “smart contracts” to be “matured” enough for them to use its.
That infamous Gartner’s “invention” has been already ridiculed for almost two decade for its vulgarity and vagueness (not to mention that during all this time nobody has ever been able to prove that it has any prognostic value what so ever). However, it doesn’t prevent Gartner from pushing it to its numerous clients and media outlets from publishing this nonsense.
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