SVET Markets Weekly Update (April 14–18, 2025)
On Week 16, stocks went red as gold skyrocketed and the dollar fell, as the new White House Administration continued to teach the world its unconventional ‘art of the deal’.
On Monday markets are mixed as Trump reconsidered the tariff for electronics and consumers’ inflation expectations jumped to 3.6% from 3.1% — the highest in 2 years — while prices for food and rent increased and gas cost decreased.
World’s Markets:
- European, South American, and Asian equities are in the green due to the delay on tariffs.
- China’s trade surplus soared to $103B from $58B as exporters rushed to ship goods ahead of tariffs.
Commodities and Currencies:
- Oil prices continued to be under pressure as Iran nuclear talks progressed, opening the gates for more oil to hit the market if sanctions are lifted.
- The dollar index remains at a 3-year low as dollar-nominated assets went on sale, thanks to the White House’s ‘pro-domestic-manufacturing’ economic policies.
Crypto:
- The crypto markets are mostly in the green due to technical factors, as hopeful traders continued to buy the dip. This is further supported by the weakness of the dollar, prompting some investors to bet on BTC growth.
The State Of Markets: In the green, mostly, markets continue to swing as Trump teaches the world his ‘art of the deal”.
On Tuesday, stocks fell while manufacturing contraction slowed down. Boeing experienced a decline due to a pause in deliveries to China. European industrial production rose for the first time in 22 months, driven by energy and non-durable consumer goods, while economic sentiment dropped to its lowest level since December 2022. This is an indication of counterproductive geopolitics taking precedence over economics, threatening to undermine an overall strong industrial revival. The crypto market is mixed as BTC lingers under major resistance at $85K-$86K; breaking through this level might spark new bullish hopes.
On Wednesday, stocks went red after Powell remarked on the risks of increased inflation and slow growth. Meanwhile, monthly retail sales jumped as consumers loaded up on purchases ahead of tariffs, and the drop in industrial production exceeded expectations as capacity utilization dipped below its long-run (1972–2024) level.
World’s Markets:
- The European core inflation rate fell to its lowest level since October 2021. China industrial production increased.
Commodities and Currencies:
- Gold set a new all-time record at $3,340, increasing by over 40% over the year due to active buying from the world’s central banks as the dollar continued to unravel because of the unprecedented economic policies of the new White House administration. Oil prices rose on Iranian sanctions.
Crypto:
- The crypto market lingers, with BTC still staying below its important resistance level at $85K. BTC is now undergoing a critical test as the world’s safe-haven asset as investors continue to sell both the dollar and Treasuries.
The State Of Markets: In the red, for the most part, as gold jumps to a new ATH and the dollar continues to devalue while Trump pushes forward with his unorthodox policies.
On Thursday, stocks were mixed as manufacturing plunged far beyond expectations while housing starts decreased the most in a year. Adding to investors’ confusion were Trump’s comments on ‘big progress’ in trade talks with Japan and China, as well as his criticism of Powell, including calls for rate cuts.
World’s Markets:
- The ECB cut its rate to 2.25 from 2.5, citing lower inflation and acknowledging weaker growth prospects. Producer prices in Germany dropped the steepest since December 2023, led by energy — indicative of an economic slowdown — while consumer goods continued to increase.
Commodities and Currencies:
- Oil jumped on Iranian sanctions. Gold eased as traders took profits.
Crypto:
- The crypto market continues to consolidate, with BTC probing $85K.
The State Of Markets: Mixed, the world’s markets remained confused as Trump threw more ‘explosives’ of the trade war at them while targeting Powell.
On Friday, main markets were closed for holidays.
World’s Markets:
- China’s FDI fell 10.8% to $36.9B in Q1 2025 after a record 27.1% drop in 2024, hurt by weak foreign confidence, deflation risks, and US tariff threats. However, potential tech sector easing and stimulus may revive inflows later.
- Japan’s Nikkei rose on trade deal hopes. March inflation cooled to 3.6%, while core rose to 3.2%. BOJ may hold rates at 0.5% next week. Meanwhile, Japan’s finance minister denied claims of deliberate yen weakening, stating Tokyo’s recent intervention supported the currency.
- Indonesia was set a 60-day deadline to negotiate a 32% tariff on Indonesian imports, covering trade, minerals, and supply chains. Indonesia will boost American oil, gas, and farm imports.
Crypto:
- Most cryptos were fluctuating near their yearly lows.
On Week 17, tariff uncertainty and trade tensions will fuel market volatility. Investors will monitor earnings from major firms like Tesla, Boeing, and SAP. Global PMI data, home sales, and EU confidence gauges will be key. China’s PBoC is expected to hold rates steady.
Comment: What’s Up With Politics?
The previous White House administration was an embodiment of what is wrong with the left wing of the political spectrum — a policy of ‘too little, too late.’ Aging government bureaucrats, led by a ‘leader’ who was literally decomposing before our eyes, proved to be incapable of meeting the demands of the new age of unhinged tech. The new administration, although packed with ‘young and hungry’ individuals, is essentially also led by older folks who have tried to gain — and then cling to — power by shifting from ‘not moving at all’ to ‘crazy fast.’ However, the results they have achieved so far are close to catastrophic. Still, the desperate public and their elected representatives are willing to give them all the time in the world they need to destroy everything. It seems that Churchill’s 1942 saying, ‘You can always count on Americans to do the right thing — after they’ve tried everything else,’ remains true 83 years later.