SVET Markets Weekly Update (April 20–25, 2025)
On Week 17, the S&P 500 gained 4%, the Nasdaq 6%, and the Dow 2% on tariffs optimism and peace talks. Crypto market correct a bit after an explosive growth on a previous week.
On Monday, stocks are in deep red, continuing volatility as traders waver in their future predictions due to the swings in the White House, which is now trying to fire Jerome Powell. Treasuries continue to fall as investors exit American equities. Gold reached a new ATH. The dollar is down, with the euro hitting a 3.5-year high. BTC made a breakout attempt, aiming to reach $90K; the dollar’s growing weakness may explain this.
On Tuesday, stocks are up following Bessent’s comment about the trade war ‘de-escalation,’ which is adding to the market’s volatility. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity is at a 6-month low, with shipments and new orders plummeting. The IMF cut its global economic growth estimate to 2.8% from 3.3% and to 1.8% from 2.7% for America. Europe’s consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level in 1.5 years. Oil prices are up, while gold has corrected sharply. The crypto market surged after equities, with BTC breaking through the 90K resistance and ETH moving to 1.7K.
On Wednesday, stocks rose, boosted by easing China trade tensions and Trump’s assurance that he wouldn’t remove Powell. However, gains moderated as doubts emerged over a near-term trade resolution as Bessent noted no unilateral tariff cuts were proposed, cooling optimism. Tesla jumped 5.4% as Musk pledged to focus on his companies. Meanwhile, the Services PMI dropped in April, missing forecasts. The World Bank cut India’s 2025–26 growth forecast to 6.3% amid global uncertainty. Oil prices slid below $62, as OPEC+ supply hike fears grew. Gold fell below $3,280 after a record high. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.31% as Trump’s Powell comments eased Fed independence concerns. Crypto market is mixed with BTC sliding below 93K.
On Thursday, equities are in green amid the spectacle of China tariff negotiations, while manufacturing orders surged for commercial aircraft, though the national activity index fell along with existing home sales. China plans to issue bonds to cushion the economy against trade tensions. Meanwhile, the CCP, faced with a slowing GDP growth, has reduced the number of restricted industries for foreigners from 117 to 106, liberalizing sectors such as TV production, telecommunications, and forest seed imports. Gold is up, as more traders are moving into it in anticipation of further growth amidst the ongoing trade war. BTC and the rest of the crypto market have paused, preparing for a correction after explosive growth over the past two days.
On Friday, stocks rose for the fourth straight session, lifted by Big Tech, though trade tensions lingered after Trump proposed 50% tariffs. China’s tariff exemptions on some US goods boosted optimism, but Beijing denied ongoing talks. Alphabet rose on strong earnings and a $70B buyback, while Tesla surged on new self-driving rules. Intel dropped on weak guidance. Oil inched up to $83/barrel but fell over 1% weekly on oversupply worries and trade uncertainty. Ukraine peace talks showed progress but lacked final terms. Crypo lingers on previous day’s levels.
On Week 8, markets will watch trade talks and earnings from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. Key data includes Q1 GDP, jobs, and inflation. Eurozone GDP, Japan’s rate decision, China’s PMI, and Australia’s inflation will also be in focus.
Comment: Trump vs Milei
Donald Trump and Javier Milei both represent radical economic shifts in their respective countries, yet their approaches diverge sharply in both philosophy and implementation.
Trump’s Economic Doctrine: Nationalist Mercantilism
Trump’s economic policies center on economic nationalism and mercantilism. His administration implemented wide-ranging tariffs targeting China, Europe, and other trade partners, under the premise of protecting American industry and restoring domestic manufacturing. He withdrew from multilateral trade agreements, sought to repatriate supply chains, and promoted a weak-dollar policy while using tariffs as tools of geopolitical leverage. Simultaneously, Trump moved to reduce the social function of government, cutting regulatory oversight and attempting to reduce welfare spending. However, he maintained large federal budgets, including stimulus during crises, contradicting strict fiscal conservatism.
Milei’s Economic Doctrine: Radical Libertarianism
Milei, elected on a promise to abolish Argentina’s “caste” of political elites, has embraced a much more ideologically pure libertarian model. His plan includes massive reductions in state spending, dismantling government ministries, eliminating subsidies, privatizing state assets, and proposing full dollarization of the Argentine economy. Unlike Trump, Milei aggressively opposes tariffs, state intervention, and even central banking as a concept. His core thesis is that government should exit nearly all areas of the economy, which marks a sharp departure from both leftist populism and nationalist conservatism.
Key Differences
- Trade Policy: Trump supports protectionism via tariffs; Milei supports free trade and opposes tariffs.
- Government Role: Trump maintains a nationalist state with strategic interventions; Milei seeks near-complete withdrawal of the state from economic life.
- Ideology: Trump blends populism with mercantilism; Milei is driven by Austrian economics and anarcho-capitalist theory.
- Social Programs: Both aim to reduce dependency, but Trump maintained large-scale federal support during crises, while Milei aims to cut social spending drastically regardless of conditions.
Conclusion
Trump’s reforms are tactical, aimed at strategic advantage and national sovereignty, while Milei’s are doctrinal, targeting ideological transformation. Both disrupt the postwar economic consensus but from opposite directions — Trump from the right-wing nationalist playbook, Milei from the libertarian anti-state one.