SVET Markets Weekly Update (June 23–27, 2025)
On Week 26, markets were in green.
On Monday, equities rose as investors eased concerns over escalating Middle East tensions after Iran’s restrained retaliation for American airstrikes. Crude prices plunged nearly 7% after Iran’s intercepted missile strike caused no casualties, hitting energy stocks like ExxonMobil and Chevron. Markets viewed Iran’s avoidance of key oil infrastructure as de-escalatory. Trump’s call for lower oil prices added pressure. Tesla surged on its driverless taxi debut, while AMD gained on an analyst upgrade, boosting tech stocks. Existing home sales increased. This growth follows a slight dip the prior month and surpassed market predictions of a further decline. Crypto markets attempted to recover of weekend’s flush-crush prompted by the escalating conflict on the Middle-East.
World Markets
- The Eurozone PMI signaled a sixth month of subdued growth, missing expectations. Both the services and manufacturing sectors saw stagnant or declining activity. New orders experienced a slight dip, though at the slowest rate in over a year, mainly due to weaker export orders influenced by a weaker euro and US tariff uncertainties.
On Tuesday, stocks rallied as easing Middle East tensions and falling oil prices lifted investor sentiment. The S&P neared a record, while the Nasdaq jumped to ATH. A tentative Israel-Iran ceasefire held despite minor clashes, and oil prices dropped over 6%, dragging Exxon and Chevron but boosting airlines like Delta. Chip stocks led gains, with Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD soaring. Powell signaled no immediate rate cuts but left room for flexibility if needed. Crypto market continued its recovery attempt after weekend’s crash.
On Wednesday, stocks were slightly in red, correcting from recent gains as investors weighed the Fed’s policy stance amid easing Middle East tensions. The S&P and Nasdaq hovered near breakeven, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high earlier, while the Dow dipped. Powell reiterated caution in his congressional testimony, emphasizing the need for more economic clarity before rate cuts but suggesting potential easing if April’s tariffs prove less severe than expected. Energy prices stabilized as Middle East shipping lanes remained open. Tech outperformed, with Nvidia, Alphabet, and AMD rising, while Tesla dropped on weak European sales. BTC was rising while ETH got sideway.
Details
- The Fed held rates at 4.25%–4.50% in June 2025, pausing to assess Trump’s policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes. Uncertainty remains elevated. It projects two 2025 rate cuts but only one in 2026–2027. GDP growth was revised to 1.4% (2025) and 1.6% (2026), with 2027 unchanged at 1.8%. Unemployment is now 4.5% (2025–26). PCE inflation is forecast at 3.0% (2025), 2.4% (2026), and 2.1% (2027).
On Thursday, stocks surged as geopolitical tensions eased, tech giants performed well, and hopes for rate cuts grew. The S&P is nearing a record high, while the Nasdaq extended its winning streak. The Dow Jones jumped points after the White House softened tariff concerns, easing trade war fears. Speculation about an early Fed chair appointment under Trump also boosted market optimism. However, Q1 economic data showed a 0.5% contraction and a widening trade deficit due to weaker exports. Crypto market was up.
On Friday, equities stocks hit record highs amid optimism about trade deals and potential rate cuts, despite Trump’s comments on pausing Canada trade talks. The S&P surpassed its February peak. Early gains followed positive trade updates, including a China framework deal. Though Trump’s remarks briefly weighed, the rally held, supported by easing inflation, strong earnings, and improved consumer sentiment. Nike soared on strong results, and Amazon rose after an upgrade. Core PCE inflation edged up slightly, reinforcing market confidence. Crypto markets went sideway.
On Week 27, investors will closely monitor progress in trade talks with key partners as the July 9th deadline nears, marking the end of a 90-day tariff pause imposed in April. Market participants will also focus on the ECB Central Bank Forum, where Powell and other top policymakers are set to share their views on the economic and monetary policy outlook. On the economic data front, the jobs report is expected to show further softening in the labor market. Other critical indicators include the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, trade balance figures, China’s official and Caixin PMIs, Eurozone inflation data, German factory orders, Japan’s Tankan business sentiment survey, and Australia’s trade statistics.