SVET Markets Weekly Update (June 30 — July 3, 2025)
On Week 27, all major indexes (including crypto) were on the rise as Powell signaled likely rate cuts this year which was added by a growing Trump’s tariffs’ optimism.
On Monday, stocks climbed as investors pushed for fresh record highs to end a turbulent first half of 2025. The S&P and Nasdaq each rose, hitting new peaks, while the Dow gained 207 points, buoyed by Big Tech leaders like Microsoft and Meta. Trade optimism grew after Canada dropped its digital services tax on U.S. firms, easing tensions. Markets are watching the July 9 deadline for Trump’s tariff reprieve, hoping new deals will prevent hikes. Treasury yields fell amid expectations of Fed rate cuts, supporting stocks. The S&P posted its strongest quarter since late 2023, driven by robust earnings and steady inflation. Meanwhile, crypto market is going sideway.
On Tuesday, equities were mixed as sectors reacted differently to policy updates. The S&P held steady near record highs, while the Nasdaq fell and the Dow jumped. The Senate narrowly approved Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax bill, though House objections loomed over debt concerns. Powell signaled likely rate cuts this year, but yields rose on strong job data and higher-than-expected inflation. Tech stocks dropped as Congress moved to regulate AI, while Tesla fell amid Musk-Trump tensions. Healthcare, industrials, and utilities lifted the Dow. Crypto market was not moving much.
On Wednesday, markets climbed as job cuts fell to 48K in June — the lowest this year — down from May’s 94K. Consumer products led layoffs, followed by services, finance, healthcare, retail, and government. Despite June’s dip, Q2 saw 247K cuts — the highest since 2020 — with 744K total job losses this year. Retail suffered from tariffs and inflation, while government layoffs faced legal delays. Meanwhile, Eurozone unemployment rose to 6.3% in May, near historic lows. Cryptocurrencies gained.
On Thursday, three major stock indexes gained, with S&P and Nasdaq hitting record highs. June nonfarm payrolls surged to 147K, beating forecasts, while unemployment unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, signaling economic strength. Tech stocks rallied, including Nvidia and Synopsys which jumped boosted by AI earnings and eased chip-software export rules for China. Market sentiment also improved due to progress on a Vietnam trade deal and near-passage of $3.4T spending bill. Crypto market is also up.
On Friday, main markets were closed as the dollar index fell below 97, ending a two-day rally as trade policy concerns resurfaced. Trump’s plan to set unilateral tariffs before the July 9 deadline renewed market uncertainty. Meanwhile, the House approved his tax and spending bill, expected to widen the deficit by $3 trillion. On the economic front, June job gains of 147K exceeded forecasts and May’s 144K, easing recession fears and reducing near-term pressure for Fed rate cuts. BTC and ETH were in red
World’s Markets:
- The FAO Food Price Index rose 0.5% to 128 points in June 2025, nearing 2023 highs. Vegetable oils climbed 2.3% due to higher palm, rapeseed, and soy oil prices, offsetting a dip in sunflower oil. Meat prices hit a record (up 2.1%), led by all categories except poultry. Dairy rose 0.5%, with butter surging 2.8% to a new peak on tight Oceania/EU supplies and Asian demand. Cereals fell 1.5% to a September 2020 low, as maize prices dropped on abundant South American supplies. Sugar plunged 5.2% to an April 2021 low amid improved production.
Commodities and Currencies:
- Brent crude dropped to $68.2/barrel as markets anticipated OPEC+’s potential output hike at this week’s meeting. The group plans to add 411,000 bpd in August, fueling oversupply concerns. While the US-Vietnam trade deal offered modest support, uncertainty persists as key partners like the EU and Japan lack agreements before the July 9 tariff deadline. The US announced new Iranian oil sanctions targeting companies and tankers, tightening pressure on Tehran. Despite Friday’s decline, Brent remains 2% higher for the week, recovering from its worst weekly slump in two years.
On Week 25, investors will watch trade developments as the July 9 tariff pause deadline nears. The Trump administration has notified trading partners of upcoming tariffs, with only the UK, Vietnam, and China securing deals so far. Markets will also focus on the FOMC minutes for hints on Fed policy, as Powell remains cautious. The economic calendar is light, but global attention will be on China’s inflation data, UK GDP, German industrial production, Canada’s jobs report, and central bank decisions in Australia, South Korea, Malaysia, and New Zealand.