SVET Markets Weekly Update (May 12–16, 2025)
On Week 20, but the S&P 500 (+5%), Dow (+3%), and Nasdaq (+7%) had strong weekly gains, led by Nvidia.
On Monday, stocks surged after China agreed to temporarily cut tariffs, easing trade war fears. Tech and consumer discretionary led gains, while pharma lagged on drug price concerns. The government saw a $258B April budget surplus, up 23% YoY, driven by strong tax receipts and higher tariffs (averaging $500M daily). Tariff revenue may drop after China deal, and surplus was aided by deferred taxes and calendar shifts. Crypto market was in red with BTC and ETH dropping more than 2%.
On Tuesday, equities rose as easing China trade tensions and mild inflation data lifted sentiment. The Nasdaq 100 jumped led by chip stocks like Nvidia. BTC and ETH also climbed, with Ether up 8%. Gold dropped on reduced safe-haven demand. However, softer inflation (2.3% in April) and strong ETF inflows, keeping rate-cut hopes alive.
On Wednesday, Markets were mixed today as investors weighed upbeat tech momentum against persistent concerns around global trade and monetary policy. The S\&P 500 inched up 0.1%, while the Dow slipped 89 points. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed, climbing 0.7% thanks to strong gains in chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD, as optimism around AI and easing U.S.-China tariffs helped lift sentiment.
World’s Markets:
- Still, the broader mood remained cautious. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.5% — its highest level since February — on hopes that tariff cuts might spur growth. Yet, the Fed’s cautious tone lingers, and traders have scaled back their expectations for rate cuts this year, now pricing in just two instead of four, even after weak April inflation data. Some say tariff-related stockpiling may have temporarily masked price pressures.
- Meanwhile in China, credit data painted a more subdued picture. Banks issued just CNY 280 billion in new loans in April — marking the weakest pace since 2005 and well below last year’s figure — amid growing strains from the trade standoff. However, total social financing held up better at CNY 1.16 trillion, helped by strong government bond issuance, and money supply growth accelerated to 8%, the fastest in a year.
Crypto:
- In crypto, sentiment was weaker. BTC gave ground, and ETH slid more than 3%.
The State Of Markets: Mixed; China’s trade deal remains in investors’ focus.
On Thursday, stocks rose as core producer prices dropped 0.4% MoM in April 2025 — the first decline in five months — missing forecasts of a 0.3% rise. Yearly growth slowed to 3.1%, the lowest in eight months. Meanwhile, retail sales edged up 0.1% in April, slightly surpassing expectations, though spending weakened due to new tariffs. Gains were seen in dining, furniture, and electronics, while sporting goods and clothing sales fell. Core retail sales (used for GDP calculations) dipped 0.2%, below forecasts. Additionally, continuing jobless claims rose to 1.88 million in early May, remaining below the historical average of 2.74M. Crypto was in red.
On Friday, Wall Street ended the week strong as major indexes posted solid gains, fueled by easing China trade tensions. The S&P 500 rose, its fifth straight gain. A 90-day tariff truce boosted sentiment, though weak consumer data slightly dampened the rally. Tech stocks were mixed. Crypto market was mixed.
On Week 27, next week investors will be monitoring core inflation rate, PPI as well as other core date including Manufacturing Index, Building Permits and Housing Starts.