What Can You Do About It?
Let’s break the current situation into a few plausible scenarios with timelines and focus on specific investment plays.
SCENARIO 1: Slow Erosion → Prolonged Tariffs → Deep Recession
Timeline:
- 0–6 months : Tariffs intensify. Farmers & exporters (Midwest) hurt. Consumer prices rise. Early signs of inflation.
- 6–12 months : GDP slows. Corporate earnings weaken. 401k shock begins. Senate resistance builds.
- 12–18 months : Recession formally declared. Public discontent grows. Political turmoil (impeachment attempts or election loss).
Assets/Stocks to Buy or Short:
| Move | Asset | Ticker/Type | Why |
| — — — — — — — — -| — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — | — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -| — — -|
| Short | S&P 500 ETF | SPY (Put Options / Short) | General market weakness |
| Short | Consumer Discretionary | XLY (ETF) / TSLA / AMZN | Consumers cut spending |
| Short | Industrial & Ag Stocks | DE, CAT, MOS, CF | Tariffs hurt exporters & farmers |
| Long | Gold | GLD (ETF), GDX (miners) | Safe haven in recession, inflation hedge |
| Long | Treasuries | TLT (Long-Term Bond ETF) | Flight to safety, lower rates |
| Long | Utilities | XLU (ETF) | Defensive play during downturn |
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SCENARIO 2: Crisis Escalation → Emergency Powers → Market Collapse
Timeline:
- 0–3 months : Escalating foreign trade wars & geopolitical tensions (China/Europe/Mexico).
- 3–6 months : Market shock (sharp correction ~30%). Trump pushes “emergency” powers (blames foreigners/democrats).
- 6–12 months : Capital flight. Dollar destabilized. Risk of constitutional crisis.
Assets/Stocks to Buy or Short:
| Move | Asset | Ticker/Type | Why |
| — — — — — — — — -| — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — | — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -| — — -|
| Short | Nasdaq 100 | QQQ (Put Options / Short) | Tech gets slammed first in crises |
| Short | Banks & Financials | XLF (ETF), JPM, GS | Exposure to collapsing economy |
| Long | Physical Gold & Miners | PHYS (physical ETF), GOLD, NEM | Flight to gold in uncertainty |
| Long | Swiss Franc & Yen ETFs | FXF (Franc), FXY (Yen) | Safe currencies in a crisis |
| Short | USD Index if currency confidence collapses | UDN (Short Dollar ETF) | If USD loses reserve confidence |
| Long | Bitcoin (careful entry) | BTC / BITO (ETF) | Alternative store of value (watch volatility) |
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SCENARIO 3: Nuclear Brinkmanship → Martial Law → Hyperinflation (Extreme but Possible)
Timeline:
- 0–3 months : Trump uses foreign threat as justification for military action. Public is scared, markets tank.
- 3–6 months : Emergency measures — capital controls, printing money. USD begins to hyperinflate.
- 6–12 months : Constitutional collapse / authoritarian regime. Civil unrest + flight of capital.
Assets/Stocks to Buy or Short:
| Move | Asset | Ticker/Type | Why |
| — — — — — — — — -| — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — | — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -| — — -|
| Long | Precious Metals | SLV (Silver ETF), GLD, GDXJ | Gold/silver for wealth protection |
| Long | Commodity Producers (outside US) | RIO, BHP, VALE | Real assets / minerals outside U.S. jurisdiction |
| Short | USD | UDN, physical FX holdings | Inflation crushes the dollar |
| Long | Agricultural Commodities | DBA (Ag ETF), CORN, WEAT | Inflation-proof assets (food security) |
| Long | Bitcoin / Crypto (cautious, depending on regulations) | BTC, ETH, SOL | Portable store of value if capital controls happen |
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Timeline Overview
| Event | Timeline |
| — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — | — — — — — — — — |
| Farmers revolt / Midwest discontent | 12–24 months |
| Senate Pushback / Revocation of Powers | 18–24 months |
| Market Crash Trigger | 6–12 months |
| Impeachment / Constitutional Crisis | 18–30 months |
| Return to “cool & fair” norms (optimistic) | 3–5 years |
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Tactical Moves for Maximum Gain
- Options : Leverage via puts on SPY/QQQ/XLF for crashes.
- Commodities : Gold/Silver futures or ETFs.
- Currencies : Swiss Franc/Yen via FX ETFs.
- Crypto : BTC/ETH, small allocation.
- Defense Stocks : LMT, NOC if military spending skyrockets.
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Important:
- These strategies assume worst-case scenarios.
- The reality may moderate, but hedging with some of these plays makes sense if risks intensify.
Please, note, that these are extreme pessimistic scenarios. If Trump demonstrates his famous ‘flexibility’ again, suddenly reverts or reduces tariffs, and actively makes pro-business maneuvers like aggressive tax cuts, those scenarios are much less likely to be realized.
For 3 optimistic scenarios refer to “What Can You Do About It? (2)”