Why Is It Inevitable?

SVET
2 min readAug 3, 2024

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  1. The current generational cycle makes it impossible to avoid large-scale geopolitical conflict, only to make it less catastrophic. The leader of the initiating party is 71 years old. As large-scale conflicts last approximately 10 years, it must be initiated within the next 4 years;
  2. Major, co-evolving points of tension will converge, leading to a systemic readjustment that, under the current over-centralized world governance paradigm, might only be nuclear (re: MAD, Thucydides Trap, Security Dilemma, Realist Theory);
  3. The closest point of readjustment meets the major condition: all four involved parties sides seek a “fast resolution,” while sharing a desire to escalate in order to preserve personalized powers and control over revenue centers;
  4. One of the participating sides has already announced a minimum deployment yield of approximately 70 Ktn if its conditions are not met. However, this side has also addressed its target audience with a historical example — not one but two deployments in August 1945 — suggesting the yield of future deployment will be around 150–200 Ktn;
  5. Estimates of the energy released by the explosion at the Chernobyl nuclear reactor in 1986 vary, but it is generally compared to approximately 0.3 kilotons of TNT (KTn). For reference, the yield of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki was approximately 15 and 20 Ktn. Therefore, it is very unlikely that the future deployment will be on the ground; it will most probably be either in the air or under the water;
  6. Consequently, the prime targets of these two deployments will be electronic communications (EMP), naval ships, or small coastal cities (unlikely);
  7. The argument that this deployment is politically damaging for the initiator because it irrevocably damages its political support from key allies is void, as this deployment will be advertised as “horrible but historically precedented and absolutely necessary to prevent the upcoming World War III”;
  8. The argument that “the reply will be non-nuclear but also terrible” is void because the initiating party doesn’t have any critical and vulnerable strategic objects outside its own territory. Additionally, politically, the initiating party has an extremely high population tolerance for catastrophic developments, much higher than that of all their adversaries;
  9. Furthermore, the deployment will seal the current geopolitical scenario development trajectory towards confrontation, which is highly desirable to the initiator.

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SVET
SVET

Written by SVET

Angel Investor (20+ years), Serial Entrepreneur (14+ companies), Author (> 1M views), Founder of Evernomics, 40+ Countries

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